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Source: http://www.financelearning.org/forex/currency-trading-7/

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by CalculatedRisk on 1/23/2012 09:09:00 AM

The new goal is to have a deal by next Monday, January 30th, when the EU leaders meet in Brussls.

From Reuters: Euro Zone Finance Ministers to Rule on Glacial Greek Debt Talks

Euro zone finance ministers will decide on Monday what terms of a Greek debt restructuring they are ready to accept as part of a second bailout package for Athens after negotiators for private creditors said they could not improve their offer.
…
“We will listen to the report on the negotiations, see how far they have gotten and have the ministers say what is acceptable and what is not in terms of outcome of the negotiations,” one Eurogroup official said.

Once the guidance from the finance ministers, known as the Eurogroup, is clear, talks on the restructuring could be finalized later in the week.

Here are a few key dates in Europe:
Jan 30th: European Union leaders meet in Brussels on debt crisis.

Feb 9th: ECB holds rate meeting.
Feb 20th: Euro-area finance ministers meet in Brussels.
Feb 29th to March 1st: Italy redeems 46.5 billion euros of bonds.

March 1st and 2nd: EU leaders meet in Brussels.
March 8th: ECB holds rate meeting
March 12th: Euro-area finance ministers meet in Brussels
March 20th: Greece redeems 14.4 billion euros of bonds.
March 30th: Euro-area finance ministers meet in Copenhagen.

Late April: Proposed date for Greek general election.
April 22nd: France holds a presidential election.

Weekend:
? Summary for Week ending January 20th
? Schedule for Week of Jan 22nd
? FOMC Meeting Preview

Source: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/01/morning-greece-euro-zone-finance.html

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It is odd how ideas, thought and reading evolve over the course of a day.? I started off early this morning reading Nick Rowe?s post on structural deficits in the Eurozone and assorted news stories on the European crisis.? I then began working in my office and while shuffling ?a few books on my desk came across my copy of First Principles of Public Finance (1936) by Antonio De Viti De Marco.? The book was given to me a number of years ago by Norman Bonsor at Lakehead when he retired and I had started reading it several weeks ago given that I was looking for something different as I began preparing for next term?s intro lecture for my public finance course.? De Marco was part of the ?Italian school? and had a focus on institutions and political economy that made him (and I suppose the Italian School) a precursor to public choice.??As Europe struggles with its fiscal crisis and trying to rein in deficits, it may be instructive to consider a few passages from De Marco?s First Principles to gain some perspective on the European fiscal mind.?

To start with, unlike the public finance tradition I was brought up in, in which there is a private sector and a public sector ? cruising along as it were in two separate analytical compartments ? De Marco views the two as intertwined.? That is, the activities and institutions of the state are very much a part of the production process of private firms providing them with institutions, infrastructure, goods and services.? De Marco writes (p.51):

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?The deviations from the principle of maximum economic advantage which are due to political factors increase the price that tax-payers are called upon to pay for the production of public services: but they do not alter the fact that the State tends to specialize in the production of a given category of goods, just as private enterprise does.? It is precisely this fact that shows the error of treating the phenomena of Public Finance as if they were dissociated from Private Economics.? In fact they form an integral part of the general organism of production, exchange and consumption of goods.?

As a result, the Italians and probably the Europeans in general (but not les anglais) are probably more sensitive than North Americans to the idea that tackling a deficit and associated debt is not just a simple cost-cutting exercise with short-term spillover effects and adjustments.? The spill-over is not just in terms of budget reductions that lead to cuts in entitlements or unemployed civil servants but can fundamentally redefine the role of the state as well as affect private sector activity in terms of the services it obtains from the public sector whether those services are financial regulation or clean water and street lighting.

The view of public debt in his chapter on The Theory of Public Loans also bears the marks of this analysis.? It would appear that high amounts of public debt were not necessarily viewed as negative by De Marco particularly if they were incurred for capital expenditures ? at least that is my interpretation based on a reading of the chapter.? Again, he writes (p.395-396):

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?The extraordinary levy can consist only of present goods; this is axiomatic.? The useful effects of the expenditure, on the other hand, usually concern future generations.? In the future, the heirs and future generations will receive from their ancestors a budget which, on the liability side, is depreciated by the amount of the extraordinary levy, and, on the asset side, is increased by the utility of the expenditure incurred.? The State, say, has used a billion to build a railroad system; future generations will inherit a billion less in private goods, but will receive the system of completed railroads?.In the light of these considerations, there is no basis for the old, but still widespread, opinion that a loan, unlike an extraordinary tax on property, makes it possible to shift a part of public expenditure to future generations.? On the contrary, in every case the heirs either receive a patrimony which is lessened by an amount equal to the capital sum involved or are held responsible for the continuing payment of the corresponding amount of interest??

If this type of thinking and analysis has underscored the European approach to public finance and the acquisition of debt, then it is not hard to see it facilitating the acquisition of ever larger debt to GDP ratios.? It makes perfect sense.? The difficulty I suppose is when the justification is applied not to capital projects that bequeath assets but to current spending on pensions and transfers.? While incurring deficits to spending education and health could be justified as ?bequeathing? a human capital asset to future generations, incurring them to fund more generous current consumption spending is not as easily justified.? When De Marco wrote, the post-war welfare state had yet to come about and much government spending was on tangible goods and capital.? Politically, if all deficits can be portrayed as investments in the future, then it becomes much harder to bring about the fiscal discipline to restore the public finances.? I think the Europeans are struggling with a fundamental rethink of what the role of public finances and the state are in the economy. When the Europeans talk about a ?structural deficit?, what exactly will it mean?

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Source: http://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2011/12/italian-public-finance.html

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